College Football's 1970s Comeback: 30 One-Score Games Signal a New Era of Chaos
Data from Sportradar shows a surge in one-score finishes, with the ACC and Big Ten leading the trend toward tighter competition.
By Stella Brooks ·
Fans attending conference games this fall are witnessing a shift in scoring patterns that has not occurred in decades. The point spread between winning and losing teams has compressed to levels not seen since the early 1970s, making predictions difficult and upsets more common.
Sportradar data indicates that last week alone produced 30 one-score games in Bowl Subdivision conference play. That total marks the highest weekly count since at least 1973. Through Week 8 of the season, 128 conference games have ended with a margin of eight points or fewer. This figure is 32 higher than the count at the same point last year.
The average point differential in these games now stands at 13.9, the lowest recorded average since at least 1973. The Power Four conferences drive this trend, accounting for 69 of the one-score games. The ACC has seen 20 of its 39 conference games finish within one score, a rate of 51 percent. The Big Ten is close behind, with 19 of 38 games, or 50 percent, ending in narrow victories. The SEC has logged 17 such games out of 39, while the Big 12 has recorded 13 out of 33.
This week's schedule continues the pattern. Miami is favored to beat North Carolina 38-21, despite the Tar Heels' defensive struggles in the fourth quarter against Syracuse. Ohio State plays without quarterback Julian Sayin for the first time this season and is projected to win 24-17 against a West Coast opponent. Georgia, recovering from an upset loss to Auburn, is picked to beat Florida 27-17.
Some matchups are projected to be exceptionally tight. Iowa is picked to beat Wisconsin 14-13, even with running back Kamari Moulton out for the season. Boise State is expected to edge its opponent 42-40 in a contest between coaches GJ Kinne and Spencer Danielson. Arizona, riding a five-game winning streak, is projected to beat Texas Tech 34-24 in a stadium where it has not won since 1935.
Northwestern, under first-year offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, visits Oregon, the program Kelly previously led to a 46-7 record from 2009 to 2012. The pick for that game is Northwestern 30-27. Kentucky, Alabama, LSU, Tennessee, and Houston are on byes this week.
The weekly picks went 10-7 straight up last week. For the season, they stand at 100-39 straight up and 68-69-2 against the spread.
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