Latino voters shift back to Democrats in 2026 midterms
Border counties that backed Trump in 2024 rejected Republicans this year, helping Democrats retake Congress and state legislatures.
By Nour Haddad ·
Latino voters in the United States cast ballots for Democrats in the 2026 midterm elections, reversing a trend seen in the 2024 presidential cycle.
Hector Sanchez Barba, president and CEO of Mi Familia Vota, said the group shifted left after Republicans enacted policies that created fear in the community following their 2024 victory.
“They came after us,” Barba said. “It’s a very deep wound. What they have done to Latinos is something the community will not forget.”
Donald Trump received about 36% of the Latino vote in 2020. That share rose to nearly half in 2024. In 2026, that advantage disappeared in key states such as Texas.
Predominantly Latino counties in the Rio Grande Valley along the Mexican border supported Trump by 10 to 15 points in 2024. Those same counties rejected Republicans in the 2026 contests.
Mark Hugo Lopez, director of race and ethnicity research at the Pew Research Center, said this shift was critical for Democratic candidates. It helped James Talarico win the Senate seat and Gina Hinojosa win the gubernatorial race in Texas. It also aided Democrats in retaking control of Congress.
Democratic Representative Henry Cuellar won re-election by 36 points in a district redrawn by Texas Republicans to favor his party. Lopez stated that Latino voters contributed to Democratic wins at both the state and congressional levels.
Other demographic groups that leaned Republican in 2024 also moved toward Democrats in 2026. These groups included Black voters, young voters, and white voters without a college degree. Lopez noted that some people who abstained in 2024 likely turned out this year, though more data is needed to confirm the extent of this shift.
D’Anna Sauceda, a 22-year-old voter in Phoenix, Arizona, did not vote in 2024. She cited her economic situation as the reason for her participation in the 2026 election. She still lives with her mother and cannot afford college. “The people, we have to take the power back,” Sauceda said on Election Day. “It’s not all in Donald Trump. We also have power ourselves.”
Alejandra Gomez, executive director of the grassroots group LUCHA, said the results show that Latino communities turned out in force. The group has operated in Arizona since 2010, following the passage of immigration law SB-1070. Gomez said voters expect new lawmakers to support issues like a higher minimum wage, paid family medical leave, and eviction protections. Arizona’s legislature is likely to be fully controlled by Democrats, with about a quarter of the electorate identifying as Latino. “The day after Election Day, I was completely teary all day,” Gomez said.
Jaime Molera, a Republican political strategist who formerly served as Arizona’s top education official, said both parties have struggled to build a Latino base. He suggested Republicans should end the war in Iran, stop tariffs, and adopt a softer tone on immigration to regain trust. “Securing the border is one thing,” Molera said. “But ripping apart families, that’s another.” He cited his work with former senators John McCain and Jon Kyl as evidence that sustained engagement over years can win Latino votes.
