Seven Senate races could decide the chamber for weeks
Tight margins and ranked choice voting in two states may delay final results far beyond Tuesday night, even as House control becomes clearer early.
By Ryan Davidson ·
Seven states have Senate races so close that the outcome may not be known for days, or even weeks, after polls close on November 3. The House of Representatives is expected to yield its majority sooner because margins are wider, but the Senate could remain undecided long into the count.
The delay stems partly from the mechanics of the election. Two states use ranked choice voting, a process that extends the time required to tally ballots. In other contests, the gap between candidates is measured in single digits, forcing officials to recount or verify results slowly.
Polls close in stages across the country, with the first results expected at 7 p.m. Eastern Time. At that hour, voters in Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Virginia, and Vermont have finished casting ballots. Georgia draws immediate attention due to its competitive governor’s race between Republican Rick Jackson and Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms. Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger noted that new laws require counties to report results within an hour of polls closing, a change from past delays.
The window from 7:30 p.m. to 8 p.m. Eastern Time brings in North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia, and a large group of eastern and midwestern states including Florida, Pennsylvania, and New York. Ohio presents one of the seven tight Senate contests, pitting Republican Sen. Jon Husted against former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown. The state has shifted solidly Republican in the last decade, making the current deadlock unusual. In Florida, the governor’s race between Republican Byron Donalds and Democrat David Jolly favors the incumbent, but the state’s redrew congressional maps will be tested in seven competitive House seats, two of which are toss-ups according to the Cook Political Report.
By 9 p.m. Eastern Time, polls in more than 80% of the nation will be closed. This block includes Arizona, Texas, Michigan, and Minnesota. In Michigan, the governor’s race between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers remains a toss-up despite heavy advertising. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico challenges Republican Ken Paxton for governor, a contest where Democrats have not won statewide since the early 1990s. Early voting data may give Talarico an initial lead, though Paxton is expected to gain ground as county totals arrive.
The final wave of poll closures hits the West Coast at 11 p.m. Eastern Time. California, Oregon, Washington, and Idaho join the count. California voters recently redrew congressional boundaries in 2025, a move that made the state less competitive for Republicans. Most close House races in the state have tilted toward Democrats in recent weeks. The new map will serve as a major test of the redistricting changes as the first full cycle under the new boundaries concludes.
Officials in the seven competitive Senate states will begin reporting initial numbers shortly after polls close. Because margins are narrow, the final determination of the Senate majority may not happen until after the initial rush of election night coverage has ended.
