Oil Sticks at $115 as Tehran Promises No Policy Shift Amid Strike Threats

Brent crude oil held near $115 a barrel early Monday, a level that reflects persistent anxiety in global energy markets despite diplomatic efforts to calm tensions in the Middle East. The price stability comes as Iranian officials declare their strategic posture unchanged, even as U.S. President Donald Trump weighs a potential resumption of military strikes.

The situation has escalated over the past eight months of conflict. The joint U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran, dubbed Epic Fury, began on Feb. 28. Since then, Washington and Tehran have engaged in indirect contacts, though direct talks have stalled for weeks. The conflict has been marked by sporadic violence, including a U.K. maritime authority report that a tanker exiting the Strait of Hormuz was disabled by an unknown projectile on Friday. Its crew was reported safe.

President Trump framed his decision-making process in blunt terms during a Sunday interview with Fox News' Sunday Morning Futures. "I have a decision to make: Do I finish it off, which would be very easy to do, or do I make a deal?" he asked. He had previously suggested the U.S. might launch another operation and claimed American forces now control the Strait of Hormuz. Speculation has grown that new strikes could follow the midterm elections scheduled for next Tuesday, coinciding with the deployment of a third U.S. aircraft carrier group to the region.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi addressed the potential for renewed war during a televised event in Tehran. He stated that the prospect of conflict had not altered his government's thinking. "Whether there is war or not, our policies remain the same," Araghchi said. He added that Washington and Israel had attempted similar actions previously and would achieve no different outcome. Foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei confirmed that the window for diplomacy remains open, with messages continuing to reach the U.S. through intermediaries.

Regional leaders are moving to de-escalate the situation. Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman, Pakistani Army Chief General Asim Munir, and Turkish Intelligence Chief Ibrahim Kalin are scheduled to arrive in Tehran on Monday. They are set to meet with Iranian Security Chief Mohsen Rezaei. Saudi Deputy Minister for Public Diplomacy Rayed Krimly described the visit as a support mechanism for de-escalation and mediation by Qatar and Pakistan.

Violence continued in Yemen, where the Saudi-led coalition intercepted a ballistic missile fired by the Houthis toward Riyadh. The coalition also destroyed two missile launchers in Sanaa. The Houthis claimed they hit Riyadh's international airport with a missile shortly after flights resumed. They also reported striking oil pumping stations with drones. Previous attacks earlier this month forced the airport to close for over two weeks and led Saudi Arabia to postpone its major investment conference until 2027.

In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that Iran and its proxies might attempt to disrupt Tuesday's elections. "Don't test us," he said. Defense Minister Israel Katz dismissed reports of a clash with Army Chief Eyal Zamir over a new military directive as entirely baseless. Meanwhile, Iran's foreign ministry stated that the outcome of the U.S. election makes no difference to Tehran's strategy.